There is always that chance that something different will happen but:
N64 had a $50 price cut in March 97, a $20 cut in August 98, and a $30 cut in August 99.
GC had a $50 price cut in May 2002 and another $50 cut in September 2003.
Wii had a $50 price cut in September 2009 and another $50 cut in May 2011.
Based on the above information, anything over $50 seems unlikely. Also, if Wii U doesn't get cut by September, there likely won't be one until 2014. It seems they favor May & September so either September 2013 or May 2014 seems most likely.
I personally believe that the sweet spot price is $150 for a HH & $250 for a console. The quicker Nintendo gets to that price the better. I would discontinue the basic and cut the deluxe to $250 in April 2014 but expect a $50 cut in May.
Nintendo would be dumb to cut price this year because the focus will be on 3DS with Pokemon this Holiday and the biggest Wii U games will be released next year...although I wouldn't be surprised a bit if we do see a $50 cut in September.
