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jacks81x on 02 July 2013
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I'm trying to be rational but given the facts that we know up to today, I don't see how the X1 will outsell the PS4, for a variety of reasons.

1. If the XBox brand is so strong, how is it that despite having a 1 year head start coupled with Sony completely screwing up the PS3 launch, the PS3 has now surpassed the 360 in global hardware sales?

2. Price matters. Sony learned it the hard way with the PS3. $100 goes a long way for the general casual audience.

3. How will MS support the X1 come year 6 and beyond? The 360 started out strong with tons of great exclusives. It looks like it will be the same with X1. However, the last couple of years things have slowed considerably in terms of AAA exclusives. Meanwhile, Sony is still showing very strong support for the PS3 in 2013 with exclusives like TLOU, Ni no Kuni, Beyond: Two Souls, and GT6. If you want to sell a lot of consoles, having a long life cycle is key. Sony has shown that they are committed to a 10-year life cycle with their consoles. MS doesn't seem to share that same vision.

4. E3 fallout and MS's flip flop. This doesn't affect the hardcore supporters, but it does with the console-agnostic gamers. MS came out in May during their Reveal to announce to the world their grand vision of the future of gaming and the bold direction they're taking with the X1. Whether you agreed with it or not, they at least had a vision. Couple months later after some bad PR and internet firestorms, they do a complete 180 and throw their grand plans out the window. So what exactly is their vision now? And how confident are you in their leadership in guiding the direction of this new console? Would you be completely shocked if they flip-flop on something else later on? I think for a lot of gamers who were on the fence before, they may take a wait-and-see approach before deciding to invest in an X1.

5. Kinect and privacy issues. This is probably minor, but it will impact a segment of gamers who do care about these types of things. I can see some parents being wary about this because of things they read or hear that may or may not be true. For some of them they may choose to just take the conservative route and get their kids a WiiU or PS4 (which are both cheaper) instead and not have to deal with this issue at all, even it turns out to be a non-issue.