Surprisingly, I agree with a lot of what you've said. I'll be honest, I expected something a lot different when I saw that avatar. This might be one of the fairest things you've written, though that last paragraph was unnecessary and kind of puzzling as a 'conclusion' for the rest of the post.
I think the XO is going to do just fine. Microsoft is kind of lucky they had time to change their approach. As it stands now, they'll still be forgiven by their fanbase, though they'd better not screw up again soon because nothing is ever really forgotten. They're going to be on a short leash for the next year.
However, you're wrong about the importance of the indie scene. It will only get bigger from here on out and Microsoft will eventually change their policies or they'll be frozen out of a lot of good games. There is no reason for that. Sure, people won't miss one or two indie titles, but let the missed games mount up and that will be a real difference between the consoles. Huge, no, but significant.
The $100 difference in price is an edge for Sony but only a slight one. I don't think it will make a great deal of difference in North America though it might keep the PS4 closer to the XO in monthly sales than we saw with the 360 and PS3.
Kinect is an entirely personal thing. I have no interest but others will love it.
I think the PS4 is going to outsell the XO but not by a large margin. Microsoft will launch a media blitz that will erase a lot of the negative press. They'll win back most of the 360 fans and maybe a few casuals/TV buffs. I think they've lost a few core gamers because of their mistakes but nothing that will really hurt them. However, people in general don't really trust Microsoft, for reasons that even predate the Xbox brand, so Microsoft had best get their act together before launch. They can't afford another fiasco.
