How big can PS4 be in Japan?

[Train wreck]

I dont think next gen consoles will do well in Japan at all this cycle (just do not see the demand). I can see an easy 20-25% drop from PS3-PS4 from around 10.5m -> ~8m-8.5m about a 40-50% drop for the Wii to Wii U cycle 13m -> 6.5-7.5 mil