The Xbox One won't sell as well as the 360 but it will sell good enough. MS is pushing towards a digital future with a single ecosystem revolved around Windows 8. The world is moving towards a digital future and MS knows it but some places just aren't there yet. This will hurt the sales of the Xbox One at first but once price drops to $299 it will start selling very well. I think in the US it will sell just as well as the 360. Its the rest of the world that wont buy as much. I'm thinking around 45-55 million consoles possibly more depending on how well casuals adopt it once price hits the sweet spot.
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