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Its too early to tell. Microsoft can still fix their mistakes though they are unlikely to.

If things launch under these circunstances, the PS4 will be more sucessful for sure. The question is: How much?

Lets not rule out the Wii U yet though. It will have the advantage of price and a 4 million headstart. With mario and sonic and a prince cut later this year they could still be in the race, despite beeing utterly mutilated by everyone.