Bodhesatva said:
I largely agree with this analysis, but I do doubt that the loss of MGS4 as exclusive would realistically lead to this being a 2 console race. At worst, I expect the PS3 to resemble the Gamecube: marginalized compared to its largest competitor, but still profitable and still with a healthy portion of appealing, exclusive games (not the least of which are produced by Sony itself). |
I don't think a 6 month to 1 year delay port will kill the PS3. I think this is a very likely scenerio, and as it was said further up on this post, by then it won't effect the PS3's sales. I also agree with Bodhesatva to a degree. The PS3 will survive, with gamecube level sales, but it's not going to have Gamecube level profit. The Gamecube was actually a very profitable system. In fact, with their losses already well over 2 billion I'm sure they will spend the whole generation in the red. Still, they won't be knocked out of the market or anything, they just won't have a successful generation. The PS3 and the Gamecube are very good comparisons. The Gamecube, despite weak sales, had some of the best rated games of all time (Metroid Prime anyone?). I mean, the PS3 isn't going to have the most software, or the most sales, but it will likely have some great games and be remembered well by those who owned it. Sony will have to change their marketing and development strategy for the PS4, but I'm sure they are up to the challenge.