I don't think it is not too early too tell. Right now nintendo reminds me a lot of how they were with the Gamecube it is the same games over and over again only upgrades mario sunshine(mario HD) Zelda wind waker(zelda HD) Metroid prime ( Retro's new IP/Metroid 4), even Smash bros melee( smash 4.) This is the first time when I am actually no longer interested in buying upgrades of this titles and I have lost hope in Nintendo. I was waiting for nintendo to bring something new to the table but it seems it is the same cycle over over again. I remember when the Wii hit the shelves I bought all this first party games and then I just stopped playing as there was nothing interesting only the first 3 years with this games and then shovelware and no third party support.With a few exceptions like XBC or TLS. Why would I want to buy Mario Galaxy 2 when I already own Galaxy 1? I understand it is an improvement I saw some reviews and it looked pretty much like the first game but with new levels. The only reason why the Wii sold so well is has more to do with Wii mote+Wii sports as it appealed to the casual audience, wii sports alone carried the console. But the Wii did not win with the core audience, it you visit most gaming sites they would often focus on 360/PS3 third parties and neglect the Wii.
Regarding Microsoft, they are pretty much guaranteed to fail in Japan the console size for the XB1 is too big and dark which the Japanese dislike as they prefer lighter coloured consoles(unless it is made by them like Sony) or smaller. I highly doubt they will buy into this whole one console for living room when in fact they are too busy with their lives and prefer a portable experience they for themselves at the train. Microsoft is repeating the same mistakes in the first place and now it seems like it is losing support even from their own core fan base. Everyone check this article which illustrates on my points in more detail:http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2012-12-13-why-xbox-failed-in-japan
Now I am not a fanboy, in fact I don't even own a PS3 but I do have a 360 and a Wii. However, now I see that Sony is gaining ground and since the Wii U will probably not be as popular as the Wii in Japan expect major changes if Sony guarantees the Dragon Quest XI as an exclusive+KH3 and the new Final Fantasy they pretty much got Japan won. And seeing how Naughty Dog got Western audiences engage. we can confidently say: Sony is back.







