As a gamer, I don't like exclusives, because I don't want to be limited to what is available.
But from a business perspective, I think they are great for Sony / Microsoft. For example, if MS paid $20 million for 1-year of exclusivity, and it translated into 2 million more copies being sold on MS consoles, Microsoft gets their money back (assuming $10 royalty per game). They also get a console sales bump, which means they will sell more games / peripherals / DLC and earn even more money.
Not every exclusive deal game will translate into 2 million more copies, but Microsoft / Sony should be smart enough to adjust their offer accordingly.
The earlier this is done, the bigger impact this has, as you increase your install base. As people here already mentioned, a timed exclusive now does not mean much as most people can wait a year (probably because they already have a backlog of great games to play). An exclusive early on in the console cycle starves the competing system from these games.
What I am surprised is that Sony or Microsoft have gone to Activision and Take2 and stolen the 2 biggest franchises. Microsoft has done this with DLC timed exclusives, but the impact wasn't huge in my opinion.
Can you imagine what would happen if either Sony or Microsoft stole both of those franchises for 1 year? I think they would cripple their competitor. They just need to have the guts to spend a billion or so dollars to make it happen.
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