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JWeinCom on 26 May 2013
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I think the holidays will go something like...

3DS>XBox 360> PS3>Wii U>PS4>XBone>Vita>Wii>DS

Wii U might be able to top the PS3 and 360, and the Wii may be able to beat Vita if it gets to that $100 price point, but overall I see last gen dominance.

The XBone doesn't look very appealing to the hardcore gamers, so it will slightly lose out to the PS4. Unless there is a major price difference or a huge exclusive for one system, they should see similar sales.

I think the Wii U will do very well. In terms of exclusives, it should pretty easily have the best line up of the three next gen systems. The PS4 right now seems like it won't perform well in the casual sector,and I don't think the XBox one will either. The Wii U should based on Nintendo's lineup. I would expect the Wii U to be less expensive than the XBone and PS4. If the XBoneS4 are $400 dollars or less, Nintendo will definitely need a price cut.

The XBox 360 is cheaper (in the US) than the PS3. The PS3 recently saw a hardware revision (and a price increase in the US somehow). The XBox 360 seems due for a smaller cheaper model. If they can get below 200 dollars on the 4GB that would be a pretty big deal. Sony could also introduce a harddriveless PS3 in the US, although mandatory installs make that a bit tricky. The Wii could easily drop 30 bucks to 100, which would put it firmly within impulse range, and we might see the Wii mini in the US.

Overall, I don't think Sony or Microsoft have provided a compelling reason to upgrade. Unless their new consoles are around the 300 dollar mark (which seems unlikely considering the going rate for a 250 GB XBox- 300- and a 250 GB PS3- 270) then I don't think the average person will feel the need to upgrade. Most third party titles seem to be cross generation (Batman, Watch Dogs, AC IV, COD, BF) or current gen only so far(GT6, GTA), so I don't see a huge demand for new consoles unless we see some really special stuff at E3.

The 3DS is already the leading console this year, and the DS line has always sold really well over the holidays. With the 3DS's very strong lineup (AC, Zelda, MH4, Pokemon, M&L), there is no reason to doubt that the 3DS will be the #1 console this holiday.

I'm not too hopeful about the Vita. Sony's own estimates have the system selling between 3 and 5 million units for the fiscal year, so unless there is something that Sony doesn't know about, Vita sales won't be too strong.

And those are my opinions based on the current information available.