Monaco GP. You usually need to be at the front of the grid after quali to win. But I don't think so this year.
So, regardless of where they qualify - considering they don't crash out in qualification. My top three.
1) Raikkonen - solid driver, tyre management will matter
2) Alonso - same as Kimi
3) Webber - won last year and is due a good result
DNF: Grosjean
I like Mercedes but I don't see that tyre problem getting any better soon.