I think it's much too early to call who will win next-gen or not. The first XBox was a media powerhouse as well, and it didn't exactly shatter the skies. While this one may have that conversation piece thing going for it, these are things that Sony can achieve as well in time - because seriously, voice recognition isn't something that terribly complex to achieve -, same with user interface. Don't forget consoles mature over time, gaining new functions and shading old.
Who will win will be determined 3-4 years from now, and not even then if this generation is any indication. The Kinect may be huge now and it may keep on being huge, but so was the Wii after all and look at it now.
Save your "Y or X is gonna win" for after you've seen more than an hour of press conference of each device. After all, the PS3 was supposed to be a shoe-in for top dog this generation, no? Markets change, user demands too and all we know is that we'll always want to play games.
