| Bodhesatva said: The simplest and easiest explanation for the situation is this: If nothing else before it did so, the adoption of the MP3 format as the evolution to the CD format proves that most people care about convenience, and are only marginally concerned with increased audio/visual quality. Blu Ray only offers increased audio/visual quality. Digital downloads can offer improved audio/visual quality and increased convenience.
Of course, as others have noted (I think Xenophon13 gave a very clear explanation), we may be farther from mass adoption of digital distribution than some here seem to think, and 5+ years is more than enough time to establish a new format like Blu Ray, so we'll see how it plays out. Still, for those of us keeping up with these sorts of things, it is a bit disturbing to see the next evolution already taking shape even as Blu Ray is just beginning to establish itself. It would be like Blu Ray already having been invented and on the fringes when DVD was just starting out. |
mp3s that are 192kbps are indistinguishable from cds (at least to most people). However, mp3s have not killed off cds. How many times do people have to make this argument?
As others have said: the big thing about itunes and others is that you can download indivdual songs. However, you don't get a booklet with that, nor do you get any other special features. CDs are still around. Oops, I made the argument again.
I agree we are years away from online distribution being used for purchases of full movies with special features. Until then, it will just be competing with rentals.
In order for me to consider buying a movie online I would need several things:
1. 1080p streaming
2. special features
3. movie stored on server with instant access from any location I can sign in from
The problem with that 3rd condition is no company can allow that because I could just share that account with other people. Therefore I will be tied to whatever box I'm using (apple tv, tivo, comcast, etc). That sucks. I can't let people borrow the movie and I can't watch it in multiple rooms without networking or multiple boxes. I also can't take those movies on a trip with me without location-free equipment.
However, let's say I just want 1080p streaming with all the special features available instantly at just 1 location. Well, blu-ray bit rates can be quite high, and I'd need a broadband connection significantly faster (72Mb/s would require 9MB/s connection which is 9 times faster than I get). That would only work with no connection interruption.
So yeah, I think it's pretty far off. Online distribution only competes with video rental stores. I look forward to trying Netflix's online rentals, but I will still buy movies. Most people buy and rent movies.
