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pokoko said:
The Vita isn't going anywhere. I don't know if it's making a straight profit off the hardware yet but given that digitally distributed titles are selling very well on the platform, memory card sales have to be somewhat robust. They're still working very hard trying to secure games for it and it's linked to PS4 functionality.

It's also definitely going to be back-loaded in terms of hardware sales, which I also think will be true for the PS4 (just as it was for the PSP and PS3). Right now, the PSP is the Vita's biggest enemy, as it still holds the niche it carved out previously. At some point the Vita will take over that niche. The fact that Vita gamers are buying software at a high rate is already pulling developers in that direction. It's an alternative market that is hungry for content and several publishers have already capitalized on that.

The Vita will be around for at least 4 more years, and probably more. The price will fall over time and it will take the PSP's position.

Couldn't agree more !

But the market structure is a lot different from the DS-PSP time. We have smartphones, tablets devour a big segment. If the 3DS is selling that much is because Nintendo plays differently, counting on the sales-power of its casual franchises and appealing 3rd party support. Unlike it, Sony played it the hard way, counting on power-wise which is specific to hardcore gamers, who are currently in pocession of a smartphone and a powerfull home console. So why bother?

Although the vita can be back at some time as the PSP did in Japan, it won't have enourmous sales. I think if it manged to do somewhere around 40m lifetime it would be a success.