My take on Sony Vita forecast. Sales could change either higher or lower. It happened before and can happen again.
PSP Vita split won't be 50/50 with PSP declining sales in Japan. PSP is already non existent in NA. Actually 5M is little high TBH, looking at recent sales. PSP will be down this year. I am seeing a 3M -3.5M for Vita and 1.5M - 2M for PSP.
Recent NPD results for Vita. In 2 months it only sold less than 100K. April until fall won't be different for NA.
Recent M-Create less than 100K in month. May won't be different. In June could reach over 100K. You guys do the Math.
PSP doing less than 50K a month in Japan. Their will be an increase in sales here there but it won't be massive.
What I am trying to say is the first half of Fiscal year is really horrible. Sony is just being realistic here. That doesn't mean it will be discontinued outright. If Sony failed to meet those expactation then goodbye Vita. IMO the real test will be next year if it will be discontinued or not.
To end this doom and gloom post. 
http://www.gungho.co.jp/ir/uploads/irk20130509_2.pdf
Ragnarok Odyssey sold over 300K.
