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pezus said:
I'm guessing PS3 is either already ahead or behind by 400k or less

The PS3/PS2 totals are at 80.4 million compared to Xbox 260′s 77.2 million. It’s not clear how much the PS2 shipped but if it did less than 3 million then the PS3 has officially surpassed the Xbox 360 in worldwide sales.

Your first guess seems to be the more accurate one.