CGI-Quality said:
I stand by it that Ascension will sell closer to God of War III, simply because GoWIII sold much lower than Gears of War 2 (the highest in the series). But, as you should also have seen, I said both did worse than I expected (Week 1 included). If Ascension continues to leg better than Judgment, it could, potentially, settle at 2 million. Of course, this would still be a lackluster result compared to early predictions, but not as bad as some thought. |
I don't think you know this but God of War III was confirmed to have sold 5.2 million units in just over 2 years (http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/news/120605_05.pdf After 2 years the difference between sell-in and sell-through is negligible). Vgchartz has it significantly undertracked and ioi admitted that before, It has almost definitely sold over 6 million by now, I'm 99.9% certain of that with the Omega/Saga collections and the new budget 'essentials' range. According to Vgchartz Gears of War 2 (the highest in the series) is at 6.62 million. GoW III didn't sell much less than Gears2, in the end they'll both be within 250K of each other at retail (of course nobody knows how well Gears2 did digitally) so saying GoW:A will come closer to GoW III than Gears:J will to Gears2 only because Gears2 sold much more is ill-founded as they're actually pretty close. GoW:A will sell closer to GoW III than Gears:J will to Gears2 because it is the superior game with a bigger fan-base.
You think God of War: Ascension will only settle at 2-2.3 million lifetime? Really? It sold 633K first month in the US alone (NPD). Its pre-orders were 8x GoW III's which sold 30K first month in Brazil (http://jogos.uol.com.br/ultimas-noticias/2013/03/12/pre-venda-de-ascension-vendeu-8-vezes-mais-que-god-of-war-iii.htm) so lets assume 15k/30K Brazilians pre-ordered GoW III then GoW:A sold about 120K+ first month in Brazil. It sold another ~200K in Europe and ~30K in Japan. That's about 983,000 first month, now with the rest of the world that figure is probably around 1.15m first month. I am betting that it sold about 150K during April and about 25K for the first week of May. So that brings it to about 1,325,000 as of this week.
You don't think it can sell another 675,000-975,000 lifetime? I bet you it will, 100%. I'm betting that if it doesn't get mass bundled then it'll sell another 450K+ from now until the end of this year, It will reach 2 million during Q2 2014 and go on to sell between 3.0-3.25m lifetime (GoW1 sold over 1m after the PS3 launched, not impossible). With mass bundling it'll sell over 2m by the end of the year and 3.75-4.00m lifetime. Even without bundling, 3m+ will be a great result when comparing it to every GoW except GoW III, not amazing but not at all lackluster. I also think a new SKU for God of War: Ascension will be re-released worldwide as a budget double-pack with God of War III which will give it (& GoW3) a nice boost.
- Lifetime prediction for GoW:A (assuming no bundling): USA = 1.90 million / Europe = 650K / Japan = 50K / Rest of World = 500K.
I don't think Gears of War: Judgment will be mass bundled or packed in with other Gears of War games so I'm not expecting anything will come along and boost sales. With how it's legs look now, I think it will sell another 370K from now until the end of this year, 2m by Q3 2014, 2.50-2.75m lifetime. This is a significant drop from Gears 1,2,3. Decent but lackluster sales. I know a lot of people who just aren't interested in the game, most of the people I know who bought it traded it in already and just went back to Gears of War 3. I don't think the community support is there to help this game sell over 3 million or more than God of War: Ascension.
- Lifetime prediction for GeoW:J (assuming no bundling): USA = 1.60 million / Europe = 600K / Japan = 40K / Rest of world = 400K.
So really, I think GoW:A will top most peoples predictions, I don't really know what people think GeoW:J will do but the general consensus is that it'll sell less than GoW:A lifetime which is what I'd agree with.
By the way, has anyone noticed how awful Vgchartz's estimates for 'Rest of World' sales are? Apparently the God of War Collection sold more in the rest of the world than GoW 1 & 2 despite selling a lot less in the USA and considerably less in Europe (about on par in Japan). And God of War: Chains of Olympus sold more than God of War III in the rest of the world despite selling significantly less in every region. Absolute nonsense, Vgchartz's estimating methods need work.
Unrelated to the above, I didn't mean to 'flame' earlier in this thread, I just found it oddly suspicious how you could have easily kept the title fair and positive but you had to turn it into a negative title when the game you favor was performing worse (you still haven't even played GoW:A so I don't know how you could have a preference: http://psnprofiles.com/JayWood2010).
