Blu-ray Triumph May Be Short-Lived for Sony

[Bodhesatva]

DMeisterJ said:
And the poster (and you by association) are clearly biased, because if you knew anything, you'd know that there are over 250 members in the BDA, aside from SONY. Why no mention of Masushita, Pioneer, Phillips, Thomson, LG, Hitachi, Sharp, or Samsung.

Why is this only a win for Sony? I'm still not getting that.

 And, for that matter, how big of a win is it?

Hundreds of Millions! Billions! Hundreds of Billions! Can anyone give a reasonable argument how much money these companies stand to make in aggregate if Blu Ray not only bests HD DVD but also DVD and does succesfully become the mass market movie format? Nobody freakin's knows, but Sony supporters will insist it's hugely, ridiculously profitable, while Sony's detractors will insist it's a pithy sum. My position: no one seems to have a real clue how much money stands to be made here. 

Furthermore, as DMeister points out here, what portion of these profits from patents will go to Sony? Sony didn't independantly develop the Blu Ray format, and they certainly won't have exclusive rights to all profits from Blu Ray sales. I think we can assume they get more than equal share for the Blu Ray patents, but is it 1/2 all profits? 2/3? Or is it really 1/11th, and profits are split equally amongst all founding members of the BDA? 

It's just all such an unknown.