theprof00 said:
The only problem with your graph, is that it does not prove what thranx is saying. http://www.amosweb.com/cgi-bin/awb_nav.pl?s=wpd&c=dsp&k=labor+force+participation+rate "When economists are concerned with full employment of the economy's resources they generally focus on the natural unemployment rate and the civilian labor force. However, the labor force participation rate is also important to the notion of production capabilities. While about 30 percent of the total noninstitutionalized civilian population (in the range of 60 million people) is either unwilling or unable to engage in productive activities, this group has the potential to enter the labor force."
In general, the labor force participation rate shows trends in society, not really a good measure of the actual labor force. For instance, it shows social changes, one could be more minorities entering higher education " "The number of minority students grew 56 percent to 5.8 million" and the exclusion of military jobs, which has climbed since 2001. The labor force participation rate does not include military jobs. But yes, I am accounting for new population. The problem is, if 250k jobs are required every month, and the 3 months before last were 160k, and the recent 3 were 220k, then 250k is right around the corner.
EDIT: Furthermore, how could economists all take the recent labor report as good and send stocks up over 1% total in all sectors, if the news was actually bad. I've looked at every chart on the BLS website, and you only choose to look at that one single chart. Well, you can feel free to address the topics I brought up individually if you'd like. a) economists don't rely on the chart you use |
Stock markets don't Judge "Good or Bad". They judge "Expected vs unexpected."
Stocks went up over 1% because experts were expecting between 100,000-150,000 Jobs this month. With the majority leaning towards the low end.
The high end was hit.
It's the same reason Sony's stocks can shoot up when they suffer a loss. The loss was less big then was expected, and expectations had depressed in the stock for a worse performance.
The economy did slightly less awful then expected.
Though honestly the stock market is quasi fucked up now as it is. Sometimes they've been afraid of good news because they think it means Bernake will turn off the spickett of free money.
The stock market has kind of been somewhat removed from the practical market due to the Federal Reserve's policys... creating more or less an economy where those who investments do awesome... and those without investments are still pretty fucked.
Not something i'd blame Obama for even if he is supportive of Fed Policy, since the Fed is independent until it's time to pick a new head. Blame him when he replaces Bernake with Geinther and the same thing happens.
Outside which....
A) Yes they do.... plenty of economists do. Example.
Heck, Shapiro is a "chief" economist no less.
B) By a single experts opinion... for plenty of others... it's very important. Again, like the above Mr. Shapiro.
C) Military jobs aren't counted... and neither are people in the military. So it seems like a mostly meaningless point.
Or to put it another way, if everyone but one person were enlisted in the army, and that guy ran a hot dog stand. The Labor Participation rate would be 100%.
D) College enrollment is up... but not by a huge number on the whole. The issue is more... people just trying to avoid graduating.
