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thranx on 04 May 2013
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theprof00 said:
thranx said:
theprof00 said:
so howbout that jobs report
220k+ per month jan, feb, march
160k+ per month oct, nov, dec


http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/03/keeping-up-not-getting-ahead/?hp

 

 

"

This lack of progress has been obscured by the steady decline of the high-profile unemployment rate, which continued in April. But the unemployment rate is easily misunderstood. The government counts as unemployed only those who are actively looking for new jobs. As people have given up, the unemployment rate has declined – not because more people are working, but because more people have stopped looking for work.

The share of adults looking for work peaked at 6.4 percent of the population in 2010. It fell to 4.7 percent in April. But recall that over the same period, the share of adults with jobs did not change. What grew instead is the share of adults no longer counted as part of the labor force.  

(The unemployment rate also uses a different denominator than the employment rate: Workers plus searchers, rather than the entire population. For the sake of consistency and clarity, the figures in the previous paragraph show “unemployment” as a share of the entire population.)"

Thranx, and don't take this the wrong way, but in what way is it possible to prove that employment is going up, or unemployment down, and do you have data for it?

All I've ever seen posted about the myths of unemployment were graphs and stats about how people are no longer being counted as looking for work. Despite lower unemployment rates, despite higher employment reporting, despite increased spending, increased retail revenue, and general increase in approval, despite more companies reporting actively hiring positions over companies reporting downsizing numbers, despite economic outlook increasing....

Which indicators actually show people dropping off the employment subsidies?

Because if spending is up, debt is proportionally growing, hiring is up, employment is up, and the general ratio of open positions to downsizing is positive, that would seem to be more than enough of an indicator saying "yes, the economy and jobs situation is improving".

The way I see it, if you are saying things are actually bleaker now, then what actual index can ever be used to show economic improvement. Apparently, no current measure works, because they all read positive.

 

NOTE: Also unemployment and underemployment are calculated against the workforce, not the total population. The total population is a denominator for payroll to population statistics.


To be honest I am a pretty true skeptic. As much as i like to use acts and data in discussions, I acknowledge for all I know the info is wrong. I have little trust for anyting I can't confirm with my own senses, so no offence taken.

 

I am not trying to say things are bleaker now, I am saying we have made no improvement. unemployemnt has gone down(but we aren't employing more people, but underemployment is high.

I dont know anyone in real life who feels the economy is doing great or even good.

 

I think things would have been better with a quick fall to the bottom, and than a natural recovery. What we have now is still in a stage of supported recovery from the government. As the support drops our recovery will drop again.