Would an industry crash be such a bad thing?

[Dodece]

What we are seeing isn't the slow onset of a crash, but a all typical contraction that takes place after a market bubble bursts. When Nintendo unleashed the Wii into the market, and a few game developers had incredible mega hits that were massively profitable. Speculative investors stampeded into the industry to unload their wallets in the hopes of making easy money. That in turn created a boom town mentality. Studios expanded to get a bigger slice of the new frontier, and borrowed heavily to fund that expansion.

They even adopted new management styles more in line with mass manufacturers who employ assembly line methods, and are only concerned with volume. The net result is they strip mined the marketplace, and engaged in escalation theatrics rather then thinking side ways. In other words if first person shooters were the big sellers. Then everyone had to churn them out. Even though there really wasn't room for everyone at that table. These companies have rebuilt themselves to pump out the volume, or concoct new revenue streams. Rather then addressing the issue of long term sustainability.

That said this industry is hardly crashing. It is about back to where it was before it boomed. Yes some of the bigger publishers, and developers are hurting financially, but a great deal of that is pining for the boom times. They just can't be as big as they allowed themselves to get, and they aren't going to be generating the kind of profit they once were. They have to shed a lot of dead weight, and discharge their overpriced managers. Who's only reason for being hired in the first place was to offer fast turnaround profits to investors. Which can't happen anymore anyway.

Further more that isn't to say that there aren't developers who aren't in fact doing well in spite of this contraction. They were just the ones who focused on conservative business practices. That didn't let themselves get bloated, or fall into the rampant stupidity that is carbon copying previous games. They kept their products fresh by not over exploiting them, creating games that were more works of art, and not spending lavishly on things they didn't need. In other words they went meek, and now that the market is contracting they are in a position to murder their rivals who ran like old western mine towns.

The reality is that the likes of THQ were actually buoyed by the boom, and would have probably succumbed sooner. Let us be clear about something. That company was about the worst excuse for a developer/publisher there was in the market. What did they produce for the most part. Licensed shovel ware. When well over ninety percent of what you make is crap, and you have to pay out the ass for the privilege to use the intellectual property of another company. Your already walking on the edge of a knife.

Electronic Arts shameless exploitation, and very open disdain for its own customers. Was a open revolt waiting to happen, and as for Square. They don't seem to know their ass from a hole in a ground, and that is really fucked up considering that they are servicing a niche market. As a casual observer I have gathered that their fans want a Final Fantasy VII remake, a new Kingdom Hearts game, and they really disliked Final Fantasy XIII. So what does Square do. They don't give them what they want, and give them more of what they obviously do not.

Anyway these things aren't surprising, because they should happen in a just world. As for game budgets exploding. It isn't really the games that are increasing the costs. It is all the bureaucracy that sprung up in the boom times. Over the coarse of time the costs should go down as tools improve, experience is accrued, and templates are established. The only reason that hasn't been happening is that a lot more people then need to be are getting a cut.

Watch some game end credits, and tally off all the wasteful spending you see there. I shit you not some games actually have over a dozen localization teams. This isn't true for all games. Especially from well run developers/publishers. They just don't go for that level of overkill.