Blu-ray Triumph May Be Short-Lived for Sony

[gebx]

madskillz said:
Sony executives may be popping the champagne corks after winning the high-definition war between the Blu-ray and HD-DVD formats -- but at least one observer suggests any celebration might be premature.

On Tuesday, Toshiba, HD DVD's main backer, dropped the format. And on Wednesday, Amazon announced it will feature Blu-ray, although it is not yet discontinuing HD-DVD products. It joined Wal-Mart, Best Buy and others in favoring Blu-ray. Universal Studios, one of the few major Hollywood producers backing HD DVD, also switched to Blu-ray.

No Champagne Yet

Sony "better not be drinking any champagne yet," warned Yankee Group analyst Mike Goodman. He said they now face a possibly more formidable competitor -- online or over-the-air digital distribution.

In fact, his research firm projects that in five years video on demand will account for 30 to 50 percent of movie rentals and sales via cable, satellite, telco or the Internet. "The majority of that marketplace will be high-definition fare," he said.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/nf/20080220/bs_nf/58454;_ylt=AiUIoAZm0ylnurL0skMhj34jtBAF

I think Blu Ray will have a much tougher time then DVD.

Blu Ray is competing against some tough competition
 - Upconverting DVD players
 - Legal Digital Downloads (Apple TV, Xbox Live)
 - Illegal Digital Downloads

Also, these won't go away. Digital downloads are here to stay and illegal downloads will be a bigger influence then ever considering that the high school and college students that pirated the most are now in their 20's and early 30's. So Blu Ray as to compete against a much larger population who's tech savvy unlike the start of the DVD generation where only a select few knew how to copy and burn dvd's.

Will Blu Ray be as big as DVD? Nah, I see Blu Ray only reach approx 70% of DVD's market size... which is still freaking huge and should make the Blu Ray group pretty happy.