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Instead of CoD you'd have some other shooter dominating the industry. Maybe Gears would be bigger? If any franchise were to take its place I think it would be Gears. It was the first "yeah! next gen" game IIRC and was incredible online.

If not Gears, maybe Battlefield. And then instead of progress bars, unlocks, and perks in every game, we'd have online passes, day one DLC, and servers being rented out to gamers in every game. Yikes.