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I think we might get one just before GTA IV's release. I suspect this'll be when a good number of PS2 owners will decide to make the switch to next-gen, and Sony needs to be there with a respectable deal so they don't lose too many of them to the 360. If money lost from a price cut is that big a problem, Sony could probably just not cut the price in Japan, as GTA obviously isn't as big there and there is no threat from the 360. The Wii isn't much of a threat there because it isn't competing directly for the hardcore audience and if hardcore gamers do decide to pick up a Wii, they will probably still buy a PS3 when the right game comes out (FF XIII, MGS etc). This means Sony doesn't need to "protect" the hardcore fans in Japan, and can simply wait for Final Fantasy XIII to come and add in a price cut as a little thank you present to Square Enix. If Sony doesn't have enough money to drop the price in the US and PAL countries when GTA IV is released, I wouldn't be surprised if they decide to release the PS4 or simply get rid of their gaming division. The thing is, they have announced a lot of new games for the PS3 (and I think we'll see some more at E3), which shows they're still supporting the platform. It looks like Sony has realised they need to start building a lot of momentum in 2007 and they simply can't rely on their big names in 2008. They also know that building momentum will be virtually impossible without a price drop. And so they'll obviously drop the price.