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Soundwave said:

Nintendo basically has 8 months to reach the Wii U target because it looks like April-July is basically a write off, so they're wasting an entire quarter + a month.

Presumably in August with Pikmin 3 and perhaps a price cut is where hardware will begin to move, but I don't see the upcoming quarter being much better for Nintendo than this last one was (390k shipped is nothing).

They probably will ship maybe 400k from April-July.

Even 400k might be optimistic.  At the current sales rates they have around two quarters worth of supply in the Americas, and even more in Other.  Japan is the only one likely to sell through its shipment by the end of June.  Now obviously there will still be some shipments since supply isn't evenly distributed, and demand isn't equal across all SKU's, but the shipments are likely to be low.