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I think God of War will end up selling more lifetime, though not by much (less than 250,000-500,000 overall). At the end of the day, Ascension adds to the story of Kratos and will end up being picked up by most folks who have either played and/or owned a God of War game. It'll also be thrown into a bundle or two somewhere down the road, or another "ultimate collection" which sells in the thousands. 

Gears... I'm just not too sure.