"3DS at 8 millions in the US, better than the DS in the same timeframe"

[JakDaSnack]

Yakuzaice said:

JakDaSnack said:

pokemon pearl and diamond had already come out, when pokemon x and y come out the 3ds sales will BOOM.  Also, the next iteration will likely have a second circle pad, zl/zr buttons, and have a longer battery life.  both of those combined could make the sales go beyoned the 30 million mark for 1-3 years.

If we're talking about the US, Pokemon had not come out at this point in the DS's life.  The 3DS also isn't really on track to outsell the DS.  It is still above the DS for now (well not "now", but as of the end of March), but by next month it will be well below it in the US.  There are seven months (including October) until Pokemon.  In the equivalent time period (Dec-Jun 2007) the DS sold 4.288 million in the US.  The 3DS didn't even do a third of that number in Apr-Oct last year.  If the 3DS performs similarly in that period before Pokemon, it will be about about 2.3 million behind the DS after 32 months.  In order to just temporarily catch back up to the DS, it would need more than 3.11 million in November and December.  That would require a 74% increase YoY.  The streams would also cross very briefly most likely.  In months 35-38 the DS did 4.95 million  the 3DS would have no chance of seeing these numbers in Jan-Apr 2014.

How much do you expect X/Y to sell if you think it will boost the 3DS to 30 million per year?  The 3DS did 14.3 million last year, and is down YoY at the moment.  That would be about a 16 million boost.  Diamond and Pearl didn't even sell that much in 2006 and 2007 combined, so even if every person buying it was a new user it wouldn't result in such a large boost.  New hardware could potentially play a larger role, but I don't see how those two things alone could sell as much as 90 million hardware units over 3 years.

The DS itself only saw one calendar year with over 30 million units shipped, and VGC shows no years with 30 million sold.  I just don't see how you think Pokemon and a hardware revision are going to do this when NSMB, Nintendogs, Mario Kart, Brain Age, and a hardware revision didn't.  Those four games were even bigger than Pokemon D/P on the DS.

I said "could" :P not that it will, but their are a lot of things that would have to happen for it to sell over 30 million, it would just start with pokemon and a new model.