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Do you really think PS4 will sell out, when

i) It uses well understood hardware from well tested manufacturing plants, unlike the PS3
ii) It will be competingat $400+ vs. a $99 360 and a presumably sub-$200 PS3 with almost all of the same games available
iii) All of one's friends are still on Live/PSN and not on the new service, and
iv) Wii U didn't