since we're talking about hardware sales spike, i'd have to go with the ps3
current install base will have nothing to do with hardware sales once gta4 is released on both system.
if we're talking about software sales, then yes, install base would be the driving factor as to which console would sell more copies and here, i see the 360 winning
when gta4 comes out, having a smaller install base would mean that more people who have not bought a ps3 and would want to buy the ps3 veriosn of gta4 would have to buy a ps3, hence a spike in hardware sales.