Just to add my thoughts to the pile of kindling:
Wii: The Wii will most likely not see a price cut this year. The most likely scenario is that new colors would be introduced to stir interest in Japan and Eu if/when it begins to fall. But they won't cut price until the console stops selling so quickly as there is simply no reason to.
If we do see a price cut this year it almost certainly will not be in the US or probably even NA in general. Demand seems strongest there so it will take the most change in demand to warrant a price drop.
PS3: Sony understands that price is definitely a barrier for a lot of people...perhaps not the floodgates that Sony fans imagine them to be but there are definitely people (like me) waiting for a price drop.
Sony's obstacle to a price drop is significantly different from that of the Wii. While it may have recently been in short supply in a handful of retail locations but this is a result of the holiday shipping schedule finally reverting back to normal. So as most people know the real obstacle for price drops over at Sony HQ is first and foremost reducing the cost of the box but also picking the right time to lower the price so that you not only maximize the effect but avoid pissing off stockholders...a lovely balancing act that nobody is envious of.
360: At this point I have to think that MS is holding back its price cuts as a responce to any PS3 price cut..because quite frankly they haven't done much with price in the time they've been on the market and like sony the only sellouts they've had were launch+holidays as well as a bit after the holidays as the shipping problems work themselves out.
While GDC is definitely a place that the could make this announcement it does seem kind of odd to do it there since its a developer's conference. But if the announcement isn't made at GDC then I'm pretty sure they are in fact waiting on Sony...thats not to say they might not get restless and drop price on their own in a few months, but that doesn't seem likely as it basically gives Sony the next move.
360 VS PS3: Between the two I think you'd have to touched in the head to think the PS3 has the advantage in terms of price right now. The 360 has almost certainly been ready for a rather large price drop for a few months and it doesn't really hurt MS to make that reduction in cost in any way. Conversely the PS3 has either just recently gotten to the point where it could make a drop or will be there in a month or two...either way as a business they would prefer to use the reduced cost to recoup some cash before dropping price right away but faced with their best surge in quite a while the offer of ammunition to give it an extra boost might make it rather tempting and force their hand.
Really the biggest difference is that Sony has very limited options due to its situation and is essentially shooting from the hip. MS on the other hand has a lot more play not only in the number and types of choices they can make but in the time they have to implement them. Thats not to say that Sony is frantic or screwed, not at all. It just means that their pricing situation is fairly volatile right now and the choices they make can have vast repercussions for the console, both good and bad.
And all of that ignores the fact that the 360 is already cheaper to begin with...which means its essentially a price cut or two ahead already in the eyes of consumers. Luckily price is not the only factor for Sony.
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