https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Akier6EZHQH1dDc4eFpacWZuR1ZDTlNyMGg3VThWZkE&usp=sharing
PROJECTION Yearly Change Total
| Year | Yearly sales | Total Sales |
| 2013 | 2,912,814 | 2,912,814 |
| 2014 | 611,743 | 3,524,557 |
| 2015 | 182,934 | 3,707,491 |
| 2016 | 24,480 | 3,731,971 |
Because of KylieDog, I ended up procrastinating for an hour, and doing a really rough projection of retail sales (I think the 3.4 sales I read somewhere are shipped to retailers, not sold to customers). I'm not really satisfied with it, since I rushed through it, but I was interested in getting some feedback/opinions, and some techniques you guys use to project sales. The main thing I'm frusturated about is Christmas, and how to take it into account, because if I can, I might be able to use other games.
Since I wasn't sure how to take into account Christmas, I basically looked for games that were released around March (Bad Company 2 and Splinter Cell in my case. I was going to use other games, but I decided that I wasn't willing to spend the time to get the extra data) and tried to get a relationship between week 3 sales to EoY sales for the first year. Then I just averaged the decline in yearly sales and applied that to Tomb Raider's projected first year sales as well.
So aside from my shoddy method, my method also doesn't take into accout the PS4 and 720. So if you buy my method, then my results should be seen as a "best case scenario". So that's not really good news for Square Enix ^.^;;
Edit: Another interesting tibit/flaw in my method.
Bad Company's week 2 and 3 decline in sales: -57.54%, -20.77%
Splinter Cell Conviction's week 2 and 3 decline in sales: -65.20%, -26.40%
Tomb Raider's actual week 2 and 3 decline in sales: -68.60%, -43.00%
Why's the 43% important? Because it might mean there's something a lot different with Tomb Raider than BC2 and SCC, and my first year EoY sales projections (which make up the bulk up of sales and affect the future year sales) might be way over estimated. Anyway, it doesn't really look good for Square Enix either way.
