The market is going to be down from last gen, there's too much userbase loss.
Last gen Wii had a big casual base, the Wii U fails to pull those casuals along by going back to a rather traditional controller.
Sony and MS split the difference for the more "core" Nintendo gamer, who wanted to play games like Assasin's Creed, etc. Nintendo now has a HD system that caters more to that fan, making more of the Nintendo gamers go back to a 1 console system.
I expect a significant shrink in each userbase this generation. The PS4 is great and all as a gaming system, but it won't reach the external userbase beyond existing Sony fans. The same applies for the 720. The Wii U will take the biggest hit, losing a good chunk of the casual base. The blue ocean is very red now, and there will be several dev studios that won't make it out of this gen alive.
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