By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
Kasz216 on 02 April 2013
Edit Thread
joeorc said:
Kasz216 said:

 

No... what i'm saying for all intents and purposes a fact.  It's based on how the english language works and based and statistics.  This is more or less how the site works by the way.  

Actually using a system is likely to bias you one way or another in regards to the data.

 You're overblown sodium one numbers should of given you a hint to that.  Even you can't deny it didn't sell 3 million nor 1.3 million in the first six weeks... it's really basic math that makes either a complete impossibility and makes the likely number a LOT lower when looking at the reasonable range.  (That most people who bought the full game played all 5 engagements of the demo, and played further after playing the game)

 

Your really inflating home's numbers and downplaying what success it has had... for, no real reason i can tell.


So what is the number of people who log onto Playstation Home every month?   Based on other sites, the message board numbers,  trends, sony PR and the games sales mentioned?

I'd place it at 2-5 Million montly returning customers with around 5.000,000 new accounts a month seems like a reasonable range.

Which is actually a really god damn successful for something like this and likely making quite a bit of profit. 

 

"No... what i'm saying for all intents and purposes a fact.  It's based on how the english language works and based and statistics.  This is more or less how the site works by the way.  "

The absolute Arrogance!! You are really showing quite a bit Bias, So your saying you cannot be wrong? 

 


It's not arrogance... it's just common sense.  Could I be wrong?  Sure, my estimate could be a million or two off.   If i'm wrong though it's more likely i'm overestimating userbase.

Could you be right?   No.  There is zero chance that is the case. 

Which i'm guessing you realize now since you completely ignored the whole Second Life corrolary.  

"We both just have opinons" isn't really a viable defense when your opinion goes against all the available data and math we have.

When a statistical range suggests something is between 1 and 10,  you can't suggest the number is 295,927,205 because we don't know the EXACT number.

 

I'm not calling your opinion silly out of arrogance.  I'm calling it silly because it's silly.  It doesn't conform with any of the data we've been given by sony, the know usage rates and trends of Active User Base and Total User base.  (pretty much always less then half, Over time AUB will be a smaller and smaller percentage of TUB.)

 

Your guess is basically suggesting that Albert Pujols will have an .850 batting average this year... even though he's batting .260 in spring training and the highest batting average ever is .366.

 

You wouldn't call someone who called BS on an .850 batting average "arrogant" you would cal him "someone who knows something about baseball."

 

Studying virtual worlds and there economy is one of my hobbies here.  I know what i'm talking about.