Current vs Last, a Console Sales Story (COMPLETE!)

[superchunk]

Final snapshot taken for Wii U's launch and Q1 sales. Its been obvious for awhile, but with only two weeks left, there is no way Wii U will make 4m shipped.

"Will Wii U sell 5.5m by March 31?"
POLL SNAPSHOT AT WEEK JAN2: (est was still 5.5m)
Yes = 233 (40%)
Maybe = 163 (28%)
No = 187 (32%)

"Will Wii U sell 5.5m by March 31?"
POLL SNAPSHOT AT JAN3: (just before investor's meeting)
Yes = 20 (17%)
Maybe = 25 (22%)
No = 71 (61%)

"Will they meet the revised 4m by March 31?"
POLL SNAPSHOT AT MAR4: (Mid-March when obvious was obvious)
Yes = 76 (34%)
Maybe = 36 (16%)
No = 112 (50%)

The three snapshots are interesting. Early on, with Wii U selling well out the gate, most felt confident that WiiU would make the original 5.5m goal. I was undecided at that point as I just didn't see eBay sales to show that there was long-term demand and I had a feeling it was being partially inflated by resellers. Immediately in January that became painfully clear and the polls reflected that shift. Once the goal was decreased to 4m, I was still in the unlikely camp and as it turns out half of you all agreed.

Now its time for a new poll.

Wii U finally has new games launching and with the new quarter we should see Nintendo aggressively marketing it in order to grow its user base before they begin to really lose any 3rd party and retailer support they have. In many stores they have front or near front spacing due to popularity of Wii, DS, and now 3DS. However, if Wii U continues to stall, they will be literally pushed to the back as the rest of next-gen is prepping to come out.

So, with new games and marketing combined with a couple games conferences, notably E3, will Nintendo be able to beat PS360 over their respective Q2s?