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PDF said:
@Avinash - I said there is no real proof on either side. I did acknowledge that wii sports was a title that drew many people to the wii.

If you want me to present the other side I will.

Lets take a look at the xbox. A system that has very dependent on the fps/sport gamer. You could figure that most xbox owners were that type of audience. So lets say about 15m of them were. Then you got all the ps2 users of that type of gamer. It is much harder to grab a # out of the PS2 since the ps2 had far more varied type of gamers. It would obviously not be less than the xbox. So lets say about 30m ps2 owners were that type of gamer. I believe far more were tho. So since thisabout the ps2 not the ps2+xbox you have about 30m gamers that are not going to buy the Wii.

The Wii will have to pick up atleast 30m new gamers.

 Much more than 30 million people in the world who didn't play games last gen



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)