Alan Wake and Fable 2 seem like pretty legit games, so let's not underestimate MS, Auron.
I still think Sony will win out in America this year, but that's highly contingent. Basically, Sony and MS will be close in the first quarter because of the 360 shortage. MS will win out in the 2nd quarter because of GTA4 and better system availability. Then I think Sony will take the 3rd quarter with the release of MGS4. The 4th quarter is where things will get tricky. It'll all depends on whether or not Sony gets down to the $300 price point and the big 1st party titles actually release. Resistance 2 will definitely come out because Insomniac never misses a deadline. The question is whether or not GT5 (and Killzone2 to some extent) make it in time. LittleBigPlanet and a Team Ico game would be great niche titles, but ultimately GT5 and Resistance2 have the real ability to be huge mass market sellers.
Fable 2 and Alan Wake will probably be great games, but I don't think they have mass appeal of GT5 and Resistance2. Gears 2 on the other hand would undoubtedly be huge.
My Top 5:
Shadow of the Colossus, Metal Gear Solid 3, Shenmue, Skies of Arcadia, Chrono Trigger
My 2 nex-gen systems: PS3 
and Wii 
Prediction Aug '08: We see the PSP2 released fall '09. Graphically, it's basically the same as the current system. UMD drive ditched and replaced by 4-8gb on board flash memory. Other upgrades: 2nd analog nub, touchscreen, blutooth, motion sensor. Design: Flip-style or slider. Size: Think Iphone. Cost: $199. Will be profitable on day 1.
