The Trifecta of Fail for Wii U, and how Rectifying all Three will Reverse its Fortunes.

[gigantor21]

Point #3 isn't analogous to the 3DS situation.

Unlike the 3DS, in which the 3D aspect wasn't integral to the experience, the Gamepad is the main selling point for the WiiU. Without it, all three next gen devices are network enable boxes with built-in motion controls. That would make the Wii U less compelling in relation to it's competitors due to lack of differentiation--the key selling point for the Wii. Plus with the rise of the Kinect in the wake of Nintendo's withered Wii support, Microsoft is positioned to box in Nintendo if they try to edge back towards the motion control angle.

With the 720, they'll have a box with built-in Kinect far more powerful than the Wii U. On the cheaper side, Microsoft can do their own price cut for the 360. The Kinect bundle is already the same price as the Wii U, and can be found for even less if you look around; a matching price from MS will keep it that way for at least the next year or two.

If Nintendo does make the Gamepad work, though, they'll be able to carve out an advantage with experiences the other two consoles aren't built to match. That seems like less of a gamble than hoping their take on motion controls will stand out more than the other 5 current and next gen consoles. The PS3 and 360 will most likely have more staying power than the PS2 did, so just being a cheap console with motion controls isn't going to help much this time.