| Slimebeast said: How does that projected number, 40TFlop, correspond to the manufactoring process of 10 nm? I have forgotten the maths behind die shrinks (the correlation between process shrink to amount of transistors and power consumption). Could a shrink from 28nm (today) to 10 nm really allow an increase of around 20 x the processing power that we today get from a 100W GPU? |
Theoretically that's the deal but I doubt it's going to work.
Since the revolutionary design of the GT 8000 series to the GTX 600 miniaturization went to shrink transistors tenfold but on raw floating point operations we had around a six times increase - of course you could argue Nvidia was focused on delivering improvements to other areas deemed more important such as double-point operation but die sizes and power consumption increased too anyways and it doesn't offset or excuse it completely. And now from 28nm to 10nm you shrink a transistor around eight times. Take of that as you will... if Nvidia dramatically change their architecture after realizing more raw number crunching could work better it could happen, but following trends or their current design, it won't.
Edit - and it seems like you have a multitude of opinions to draw your conclusions from. I may be the most pessimistic one but right now looks like to me the mighty fundations of predictable increases seem to be finally faltering as we get stuck for longer and longer on the same manufacturing processes.
