It will do better than Vita. Sony has a much better reputation with home consoles than portables, though it has been tranished somewhat with the PS3. We will see to what extent with the PS4. One thing Sony has in its favor is its cinema style games fit much better with a home console than on a small handheld screen. Its games are meant to be played on a large HD set with surround sound and in long sessions. Handheld gaming doesn't really mix with any of these qualities, which is part of the reason Vita is performing so badly. It is theater-style gaming on a pocket device. Though I think PS4 is going to come with its own issues, the main one being price. While I think PS4 will out perform Vita, it won't be by as great a margin as most people assume.
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