It really depends on the measuring stick you are using. There are many ways to look at the situation. In a straight up cumulative sales comparison probably not. In a comparison weighed against their respective markets. Then there is more room for debate. That said I don't think anyone should be dealing in absolutes just yet. While a catastrophic failure of the console isn't very probable. It is hardly in the realm of impossible.
Sony can still sabotage their console with bad design choices, pricing, or abhorrent policies. The competition might well end up disrupting the market, and changing the standards wholesale. The global economy still being terribly shaky might suffer another set back, or a full blown reversal. That said I think the original poster has something of a point. In a lot of ways Sony is repeating the same mistakes it has before, and the price of doing that might actually be getting steeper over time.
Really Sony is offering up the same old dance, and to expect bettering results seems kind of absurd. In all honesty their strategy shouldn't work, but it seems to be their only fall back position. The strategy while it might not win them a new generation. Should hold them in a moderate to good sales position. Granted that nothing like I stated above doesn't come out of nowhere, and makes their plan completely invalid.
Personally I want to see three things before committing to any set in stone position. The entirety of what Sony has in mind for their platform. What the competition has in mind for their platforms. Whether the economy is going to continue to grow over the next four months.
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