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Google's market cap is now 17% higher than MSFT, up from 3% at the beginning of the year.  If this keeps up, GOOG should be 25 or 30% by the end of the year.  I dont think that MSFT can continue to be a threat in mobile unless they get their act together; assuming that future performance will be more of the same; expect MSFT to cut back on smartphone advertising/sales within only a couple of years. 

 

Assumptions:

I assume that the stock market is at least somewhat rational, and that stock prices reflect future expectations of cash flow.  I also assume that a growing company will eventually be able to muscle out a smaller, weaker one