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What I don't get is this downplaying of the impact on 360 sales from the 1+ year head start and the FREAKING $200 PRICE DIFFERENCE FOR THE FIRST FEW YEARS. And at the same time, acting like the NeXbox is going to perform similarly in EU and Japan without those HUGE advantages.

Look at the PS3. It fumbled out the gate at the beginning, pretty much handing the gen to Nintendo and MS, yet it probably has already passed the 360 and will end up extremely close to the Wii (maybe even tying with it.) We only have to look at the PS1 and PS2 to see what Sony can do with a healthy launch.