The flaw in the logic here is that typically the first quarter of the year is frequently (software wise) a bad time of the year. The few good games don't get the attention that a good game in the fall would get. The exception has typically been Microsoft with Gears of War.
Later in the Spring to early Summer, there are often some bigger games that appear and they will drive sales typically through the Summer. With a few solid games being released in the Summer. Then the big fall push happens.
The first year is typically tough because of the lack of games for any gaming system. However, once that first year passes buyers will look at the library of games to determine if the console is worth purchasing.
This is why I'm not worried about the Wii U yet. If this Autumn/Winter things don't improve than Nintendo has something to fret about.
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