HappySqurriel said:
Towards your edit from the original post "So Blue Ray has won thanks to the PS3, its as good as official. Now the real question is will PS3 win becuase of Blue Ray?" and from finalsquall's post "I see domination for the ps3 and yes - will take down the wii eventually, in life time sales" the Wii was already in this thread indirectly (in terms of the PS3 "winning") and directly (by the PS3 eventually passing the Wii in sales).
The PS3 has continued to improve do to a $200 price difference between what was the main SKU when it launched and what its main SKU is today, a lot of game releases, and the dominance of the Blu-Ray format; but that doesn't mean that it will continue to see sales improvements in the future, and it certainly doesn't mean that Blu-Ray will be the driving force of any improvement. Optimistic projections of HDTV adoption have it hitting 50% of households in 2010, and all of these projections were based off of the ecconomic conditions of 2002 through 2005 being continued through 2010; in other words, they expected higher house values and home equity lines of credit to allow people to make big ticket purchases regardless of whether their income level supported it or not. What this means is that you shouldn't expect Blu-Ray to become a mainstream product until mid 2009 at the earliest (and potentially 2011 with more realistic projections of HDTV adoption). A reasonable projection for the number of consoles sold at the end of 2008 based on year to date sales would be 45 to 50 Million Wii systems, 22 to 26 Million XBox 360 systems and 18 to 21 Million PS3 systems; the Wii will consistently outsell the PS3 and XBox 360 worldwide through the entire year and will often outsell both systems combined by a wide margin. Regardless of what people think most Wii owners will not avoid third party games, and the "rising tide will raise all boats" meaning that third party published games will continue to see greater and greater sales; certainly, not many thrid party games will see 4+ Million in sales but this is (mainly) do to how low profile the games are (but most third party games will see sales above 250,000 and quite a few will sell over 1 Million). The combination of higher potential sales, higher realistic sales, and lower development costs will weigh heavily on third party publishers and the PS3 will certainly not see the massive bulk of third party support the PS2 or Playstation received; most likely the Wii will have that support. Now, when the Wii has a 40 Million unit lead on the PS3, a much larger and more diverse line-up, is selling at $100 less than the PS3, and Blu-Ray players are $100 (or less) why are people going to choose to buy a PS3?
Please note, I'm not saying the PS3 is going to stop selling ... |
You appear to have ignored my point about new technology becoming cheaper. The ps3 will likely be approx $300 by the end of the year and hi def tvs are also continually dropping in price thus eventually they will cost the equivelant to current standard def televisions. You can't keep on assuming that things remain still. Eventually when the ps3/360 hit mass market price it won't matter much if the wii is $100 cheaper. At that point people will be buying consoles solely on merit and preferance.
You assume like its preordained that the wii will accumulate a 40 million lead and yet there are so many factors which could tilt the momentum in either direction. The wii may well become one of the best selling consoles of all times but I will reserve my judgment until I see how it does against the competition when all consoles are in the mass market price range.