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kitler53 said:
only if ps4 launches with a free + subscription model..

Even then, it would need to have sufficiently compelling content to do this.  Early on, systems usually don't have this.  They may get a killer app or two, that drives a niche, but usually the library is too small.  With the PS4 not being able to play PS3 games natively, and going the streaming route for past content (MONSTER dependent on monster bandwidth), one is hard pressed to do that.  Say, even if the PS4 were priced less than the PS3, the PS3's library alone is going to make the masses think twice about picking it over the PS3 itself.

So, I personally just don't see it happening.  Maybe ship 16 million and then be always available.  That, however, as seen with the WiiU, means people feel less pressured to get one, because they may be gone.

Heck, also have to wonder to, with Sony manufacturing the Vita and PS3 still, if they even have the capacity to push out that many.  They will likely have to sideline X% also as they get the system into production and defects show up, which is the norm for about every console, and I don't care how much it resembles a PC either.