the_dengle said:
No, your methodology is bad and you should feel bad. You just rammed a few numbers together, got a couple of "data points" and applied them to a completely different situation, while entirely disregarding the last six years in the process, literally pretending the Wii never happened just because its biggest market was the dreaded casuals. That big fat 100 million didn't gel with your theory so you made up some excuse to discard it. Have some salt with that data point. |
1. My methodology is thoroughly sound. There were only six data points to consider, and I excluded the two that were obviously anomalous. The sales of those two anomalous consoles. Weren't the only things that were anomalous about them. They were both radical design choices, and contrary to popular conventions. They were both fundamentally more gimmick then substance. The design of the Wii U has far more similarities to the four consoles I cited then it does to the two oddballs. The Wii U is a typically safe, and conservative Nintendo console. Which is where Nintendo is predominantly at as a company.
2. The situation is hardly different at all, and that is what I think has you worried. If something happens five out of six times. Then the odds are overwhelmingly in favor of that something happening again. Nintendo consistently loses marketshare in the high double digits generation after generation, and overall the trend in the long has been undeniably consistent. Especially as far as conservative designs are concerned. I am not pretending the Wii didn't exist. Any more then I am pretending that the Virtual Boy didn't exist. What I have put them in is context, and since they are poor indicators for the Wii U. They shouldn't be used to discuss that consoles future prospects.
3. You obviously desperately want to believe that Nintendo has turned the corner, but I have news for you a Zebra just can't change its stripes. Anymore then some companies like Nintendo can change the way they operate. Without a genuine fad to buoy sales of their consoles. They typically keep to the monotonous decline into oblivion. The only thing I feel bad about in this thread. Is the fact that you have probably lashed yourself to a dead horse, and you are probably not going to fare too well when the vultures show up. By the way I will gladly accept that salt you offered up. I will save it to pour in your open wounds in say eighteen months time.
4. Looking at the sales of the Wii U. I am really feeling confident in my conclusions. Can you honestly say the same. I mean outside of consoles that weren't in fact supply constrained upon launch, or that unltimately failed out of the market. Has anyone actually done worse. I guess it is to be expected seeing as Electronic Arts is supposedly not on board anymore. You do know that their absense is quite the death omen right. I mean if Electronic Arts abandons a platfrom, or fails to set up shop in the first place. That those platforms don't have any real longevity.
