I definitely think MS consumer dominance is set to end within 5 years. Not in some spectacular bankrupting way but just that reliance on old applications will lessen, and Chrome OS and other possible competitors (iOS laptops? Samsung fork of some kind?) will become good enough so a customer can use them for everything they'd do in a day. Everyone today still owns an MS device but they don't feel attached to it like they do their phone.
Surface is the part of that strategy that's not working. It's expensive, relatively slow, and limited in what it can do for a consumer compared to an iPad, and certainly some upcoming more polished Android efforts. It's being held back by legacy Windows (even in RT).
Predictions:
AMD and Nvidia to be bought or dismantled for their graphics by Qualcomm, Samsung or Apple. AMD's CPU division and Nvidia's Tegra division are basically worthless.
Nokia to be bought by MS.
RIM is dead.
Sony won't die but they won't be leading anything.
