hmm, can't tell, but I'm gonna say Xbox, just cause MS seems to be pushing it to appeal to casuals, gamers, and people using it as a cable box. Plus the fact, that MS can sell it for cheaper (or with subscription plans) and has a big marketing budget. And it helps that Sony went for a powerful console, cause then its easier for MS to undercut the price.
PS4 on the other hand seems to be aiming at core gamers mainly, and the market for that is much smaller now. You could argue that the PS4 will have Move to attract casuals, but it looks too similar to the Kinect, so I'm not sure if it will attract new customers. Having said that, Kinect 2.0 may not attract casuals this time, since it would be pretty similar to the original Kinect.
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