Zappykins said:
The have and the ration divorce is lowest for man-woman marriages where same sex marriage is legal. (Masscults being the old US state with Same Sex Marriage, has the lowest divorce rate. Man-Man marriage have, after the same amount of time, half the divorce rate for Man-Woman marriages. Woman-Woman marriages have about the same divorce rate of Man-Woman marriages. But statistics show that Woman-Woman couples raise the most achieving children, and the lowest molestation rate of all couples. |
I'm for gay marriage but my inner statician is screaming at me right now.
It would be way to early to conduct that kind of study in any US state. You'd need a Europeon state where gay marriage has been around a couple decades.
Reason being, most divorces happen early on in a wedding.
So you look at gay couples right. Just because they haven't been married, doesn't mean they haven't been living togther. My cousin for example has been living with his partner for I don't even know, might of been longer then I could remember.
While he would of got married likely decades ago, he couldn't, and when the law passes. He will. Meanwhile someone who WOULD of got divorced decades ago never got married in the first place. So essentially you've got decades worth of "Good marriages" messing up the marriage rate.
Honestly, half the divorce rate seems bad in regards to such numbers since it's an "Order of Magnitude" type thing as far as years go, however there may be a bunch of people getting married just because they're so excited they could and rushing marriages sooner.
That is to say if we're talking about percentage of marriages that divorce within the first year.... and we assume gay and straight couples are the same and we just look at 2 years. Straight people married for two yerars lets say have a 50% divorce rate.
For gay people, if gay marriage had been outlawed two years ago, and made legal again one year ago... (and wedding rates stayed the same.) Since that first group who was going to get married is no longer around. Gay Divorce rate should be 33%. Just on the basis of a one year difference.
So unless controlled for intellegenetly you'd expect there to be HUGE gaps just based on the above phenomom.
To be honest i'd expect gay marriage divorce rates to end up HIGHER all thigns adjusted. Not because of anything inherent to gay marriage, but due to all the extra stress put on same sex couples by a general homophobic culture.
