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It will not depend on the fans who wins this generation, not the core gamers are the ones who buy the most consoles, it will depend way more on which one will get more casual gamers to buy the system. And if kinect 2 will be really way better this time and offer new cool things, than Microsoft has way better chances than Sony to win the casual/mainstream gamers.

Sony has no ideas, they brought again a system that has only slightly better graphics and it has nothing really new and cool. Hard Core Gamers will appreciate the way Sony goes but the normal core gamers and casual gamers probably will go with Microsoft this time.

Sony needs new ideas, if they stay like this with nothing new and exiting for a more casual audience and mainstream gamers than they will face their bankrupt and the last place in nearer future.